Prediction of incidental asymptomatic meningioma at high risk of tumor growth using a multiparametric MRI-based machine learning approach
Author Block: N. Mei1, Y. Chen2, V. Sawlani3, X. Li1, J. Cui1, Z. Zheng4, D. Wang1, Y. Lu1, B. Yin1; 1Shanghai/CN, 2Jiangsu/CN, 3Birmingham/UK, 4Shandong/CN
Purpose: Tumor growth imposes a considerable psychological impact on patients with incidental asymptomatic meningiomas. This study aimed to identify clinical, semantic, and multiparametric MRI features associated with growth potential and to develop a machine learning model for risk prediction, thereby informing personalized surveillance and management strategies.
Methods or Background: This retrospective multi-center study enrolled adult patients with incidental asymptomatic meningiomas confirmed by routine MRI. Tumors were manually segmented on CE-T1WI images. Radiomics features were extracted from CE-T1WI, T2-FLAIR, and ADC images and selected using correlation and Cox regression analyses. A random survival forest model was developed with five-fold cross-validation to predict tumor growth. Model performance was assessed by C-index and time-dependent ROC curves. Risk stratification was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis.
Results or Findings: 421 patients with incidental asymptomatic meningiomas from Institution A were randomly split into training, validation, and testing sets, with an independent external validation set comprising 39 patients from Institutions B and C. Eleven significant predictors were incorporated into a random survival forest model, which demonstrated strong performance with C-indices of 0.928, 0.874, 0.872, and 0.860 in the training, validation, testing, and external validation sets, respectively. The model achieved consistently high time-dependent AUCs (> 0.80) at 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year follow-up, and stratified patients into significantly low and high growth-risk groups on Kaplan-Meier analysis.
Conclusion: Our MRI-based machine learning model reliably predicts growth risk in incidental asymptomatic meningiomas, enabling personalized surveillance. This may improve clinical decision-making and reduce unnecessary interventions and, importantly, patient anxiety.
Limitations: Patient inclusion was based on meningiomas identified at initial MRI, which may have led to rare misclassification of solitary fibrous tumor; however, follow-up likely minimized this risk. Only reproducible, interpretable radiomics features were included to reduce redundancy and overfitting.
Funding for this study: This work is sponsored by the Explorers Program of Shanghai (Grant no. 24TS1410800) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82281966).
Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? Yes
Ethics committee - additional information: Institutional Review Board of Huashan Hospital