Volume and location of extrapancreatic necrosis in predicating the severity and clinical outcomes of acute necrotizing pancreatitis
Author Block: G. Yan, Y. Li; Suining/CN
Purpose: To explore the value of extrapancreatic necrosis volume (EPNV) and location in predicting the severity and clinical outcomes of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP), and compare its diagnostic performances with some current scoring systems.
Methods or Background: Patients diagnosed with ANP from three hospitals were included. All underwent upper abdominal CT scans within one week of ANP onset. Data of the clinical severity, modified CT severity index (MCTSI), CT severity index (CTSI), extrapancreatic inflammation on CT score (EPIC), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were collected. Clinical outcomes included multiple organ failure (MOF), infection, therapeutic procedures, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death. Correlations between the EPN location and the ANP severity/clinical outcomes were assessed. Diagnostic performances of the various scoring systems were compared.
Results or Findings: 128 ANP patients were enrolled. EPN (lesser sac, left anterior pararenal space, left paracolic gutter) showed weak correlations with ANP severity and clinical outcomes (P < 0.05). The AUCs of EPNV for predicting ANP severity, MOF, infection, therapeutic procedures, ICU admission, and death were 0.908, 0.899, 0.887, 0.891, 0.878, and 0.893, respectively (P < 0.05). Its diagnostic performance in predicting these indicators was higher than or similar to that of MCTSI, CTSI, EPIC, BISAP, and CRP levels.
Conclusion: EPN located in the lesser sac, left anterior pararenal space, and left paracolic gutter may have a certain correlation with severe ANP, MOF, infection, therapeutic procedures, ICU admission, and death in ANP patients. The EPNV may have high diagnostic performances in predicting ANP severity and clinical outcomes, which are higher or similar to that of some current commonly used clinical, radiological, and laboratory scoring systems.
Limitations: This study is a retrospective and may have some selection bias.
Funding for this study: None
Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? Yes
Ethics committee - additional information: Medical Ethics Committees of the Suining Central Hospital, Mianyang Third People's Hospital, and North Sichuan Medical College Affiliated Hospital.