From MRI to MoCA - Machine Learning Models for Cognitive Impairment Prediction
Author Block: N. Zdanovskis, K. Šneidere, K. Kalva, Z. A. Litauniece, A. Usacka, Z. Freibergs, A. Platkajis, A. Stepens; Riga/LV
Purpose: To assess whether machine learning algorithms can predict Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores from MRI morphometry in patients with cognitive impairment.
Methods or Background: Eighty subjects were included, with 70 used for training and 10 for testing. From structural MRI, 101 morphometric features were extracted, including cortical thickness (68 regions), subcortical volumes (20 bilateral structures), corpus callosum subdivisions (5), and global volumetric measures (8). Six supervised regression models were evaluated: Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN). Performance was assessed using mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R².
Results or Findings: Random Forest achieved the best accuracy (MSE = 32.7, MAE = 4.55, R² = 0.655), followed by Gradient Boosting (MSE = 47.8, MAE = 5.91, R² = 0.496) and AdaBoost (MSE = 58.4, MAE = 6.80, R² = 0.384). Linear Regression and kNN showed weak predictive value (R² = 0.001 and 0.10), while SVM performed poorly (R² = –0.145). Neural Networks failed to converge (R² = –3.14). At the subject level, Random Forest predictions were closest to actual scores; for example, a patient with MoCA = 24 was predicted as 25, while another with MoCA = 7 was predicted as 13, and one with MoCA = 30 as 24.
Conclusion: Machine learning models demonstrated the ability to approximate MoCA scores from MRI-derived morphometric features with clinically meaningful accuracy. These findings suggest that in future ML-based approaches could be applied in clinically relevant scenarios, such as supporting early detection of cognitive impairment and stratifying patients for further testing.
Limitations: Single-center retrospective study with a modest sample size. External validation is required to confirm generalizability. MoCA, while widely used, may not capture the full spectrum of cognitive domains.
Funding for this study: Modifiable bio and life-style markers in predicting cognitive decline (MOBILE-COG) No: RSU-PAG-2024/1-0014 is financed by the investment of the European Union Recovery and Resilience Facility and the state budget within the project "RSU internal and RSU with LASE external consolidation" No. 5.2.1.1.i.0/2/24/I/CFLA/055.
Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? Yes
Ethics committee - additional information: Approval was obtained from the institutional ethics committee, and all participants provided informed consent.