A Dual-layer Spectral Nomogram Integrating Structural, Functional, and morphological Parameters for Risk Stratification of Esophageal Varices in Cirrhosis
Author Block: J. Li1, J. Lei1, B. Wang1, X. Zhang2; 1Lanzhou/CN, 2Xi An/CN
Purpose: To develop and validate a noninvasive dual-layer spectral computed tomography (DSCT)-based nomogram model integrating quantitative multiparameters and clinical indicators to optimize risk assessment and hemorrhage prediction of esophageal varices (EVs) in patients with cirrhosis.
Methods or Background: This retrospective study enrolled 284 cirrhotic patients undergoing DSCT , divided into training (n=194) and validation (n=90) cohorts. Patients were stratified according to the presence of high-risk esophageal varices (HREV), red color signs (RC signs), and esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB), with endoscopy as reference. Quantitative parameters were analyzed, including extracellular volume fraction (ECV) and iodine washout rate (IWR) of liver and spleen, and esophageal variceal diameter (EVD). Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors for nomogram construction. Model performance was evaluated via AUC, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and predictive metrics [(sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV) ]in both cohorts.
Results or Findings: EVD, ECVliver, ECVspleen, and IWRliver differed significantly across subgroups stratified by HREV, RC(+), and EVB status (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis identified EVD, ECVspleen, and IWRliver as independent predictors of HREV; EVD, ECVspleen, IWRliver, and total bilirubin for RC sign; and EVD, ECVspleen, aspartate aminotransferase, and red blood counts for EVB (all P < 0.05). The nomogram demonstrated high predictive accuracy for HREV (AUC: 0.963/0.968), RC signs (0.898/0.854), and EVB (0.847/0.785) in training/validation cohorts. DCA confirmed clinical utility, with net benefit across low-to-medium risk thresholds (0.0-0.6). At EVD thresholds of 5 mm and 3 mm, the model achieved specificity/PPV of 97.1-100.0%/97.7-100.0% and sensitivity/NPV of 94.4-94.2%/88.7-91.2% for HREV in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.
Conclusion: This DSCT-based nomogram synergizes structural (ECVspleen), functional (IWRliver), and morphological (EVD) biomarkers to noninvasively stratify risks of HREV, RC signs, and EVB in cirrhosis.
Limitations: Lack external validation.
Funding for this study: None
Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? Not applicable
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