Recurrence-free survival prediction in head and neck cancers using deep learning: a multicentre, multimodal approach harnessing uncertainty estimation and counterfactual explainability
Author Block: Z. Salahuddin, H. C. Woodruff, Y. Chen, X. Zhong, P. Lambin; Maastricht/NL
Purpose: This study aims to develop an end-to-end trustworthy deep learning model for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) in head and neck cancers, utilising FDG-PET and CT images and automated delineations, with a focus on increasing confidence and explainability through uncertainty predictions and counterfactual image generation.
Methods or Background: Given the prevalence and severity of head and neck cancers worldwide, an algorithm capable of accurately predicting RFS could significantly enhance therapeutic planning and patient management. The developed adaptive 3D resnet-50 deep learning model was trained on multimodal data (clinical data, FDG-PET, and CT images) using a multi-task logistic regression framework. Fivefold cross-validation was performed on 378 patients from 5 different centres, and 111 patients from 2 different centers were used as an external test set. Automated delineations of tumour and lymph nodes were obtained via a modified nnUNet. The model utilised a multi-head multi-loss function to estimate prediction uncertainty and employed a VAE-GAN for latent space traversal, generating counterfactual images to explore and visualise hypothetical scenarios and enhance explainability.
Results or Findings: The model demonstrated a competitive c-index of 0.681 [95% CI: 0.663 - 0.694] in fivefold cross-validation and 0.671 on two external test sets. Predictions with lower uncertainty are correlated with superior performance, evidenced by a c-index of 0.683. Kaplan-Meier curve demonstrated a significant split between low and high-risk groups. Counterfactuals revealed that both shape and texture features from FDG-PET and CT images are important for predicting survival.
Conclusion: The developed model exhibits promising potential in providing trustworthy and interpretable RFS predictions for H&N cancer patients, leveraging multicentre multimodal data, uncertainty estimates, and counterfactual explainability.
Limitations: The model necessitates prospective validation, and conducting an in-silico trial is imperative to assess the clinical efficacy of the counterfactuals and uncertainty predictions.
Funding for this study: Funding for thist study was received from EuCanImage n° 952103.
Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? Yes
Ethics committee - additional information: Institutional Review Boards of all participating PROVIDER institutions permitted use of images and clinical data, either fully anonymised or coded, from all cases for research purposes only. Retrospective analyses were performed in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations as approved by the respective institutional ethical committees with protocol numbers: MM-JGH-CR15-50 (HGJ, CHUS, HMR, CHUM) and CER-VD 2018-01513 (CHUV). For CHUP, institutional review board approval was waived as all patients signed informed consent for use of their data for research purposes at diagnosis. For MDA, ethics approval was obtained from the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center Institutional Review Board with protocol number: RCR03-0800. For USZ, ethics approval was related to the clinical trial NCT01435252 entitled "A phase II study in patients with advanced head and neck cancer of standard chemoradiation and add-on Cetuximab". For CHB, the fully anonymised data originates from patients who consent to the use of their data for research purposes. List of PROVIDERS: HGJ: Hôpital Général Juif, Montréal, CA; CHUS: Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, CA; HMR: Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont, Montréal, CA; CHUM: Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montréal, CA; CHUV: Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, CH; CHUP: Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Poitiers, FR; MDA: MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA; USZ: UniversitätsSpital Zürich, CH; CHB: Centre Henri Becquerel, Rouen, FR.