AI detection of interval cancers: does size, grade, and time since screening affect sensitivity?
Muzna Nanaa, Cambridge / United Kingdom
Author Block: M. Nanaa, T. van Nijnatten, N. Stranz, S. Carriero, N. Payne, I. Allajbeu, E. Giannotti, R. Manavaki, F. Gilbert; Cambridge/UKPurpose: The objective of this study was to evaluate AI detection of interval cancers (IC) on screening mammograms by tumour size, grade, and time since screening.Methods or Background: Two radiologists (8 and 3–13 years’ experience) classified 488 ICs (2011–2018) as visible or non-visible on screening mammography. Tumour volume doubling time (TVDT) was calculated for visible cancers [TVDT=ln (2). Δt/- (ln d1-ln d2)], with the median TVDT for grade and receptor status of visible cancers used as a surrogate to estimate cancer size for non-visible cancers [T(SS)=T(SD)×e-(ln(2)/TVDT)×Δt], T(SS): tumour size screening, T(SD): tumour size diagnosis. The sensitivity of a commercial AI algorithm was analysed by tumour size, grade, receptor status, and time from screen to diagnosis at its default threshold for cancer detection (score 10).
Results or Findings: Median screening size was 12 mm (IQR 9–18) for visible cancers (280/488), with median estimated size - 65 mm (IQR 1.26–5) for non-visible cancers (208/488).
AI detected - 2% (163/280) of visible and 30.7% (64/208) of non-visible cancers, p<0.001. AI localised 58.4% (31/53) of grade 1, 46.3% (103/222) of grade 2, 43.2% (87/201) of grade 3 cancers, p=0.14, 49.3% (195/395) of ER-positive cancers and 31.7% (27/85) of ER-negative cancers, p=0.003. The median time to interval was 666 days (IQR 405–895) for localised cancers and 708 days (IQR 480–929) for non-localised, p=0.057.
The median size was 13 mm (IQR 9–19) and 12 mm (IQR 8–17) for localised and non-localised visible cancers, p=- 027, and 3.15 mm (IQR 1.93–5.51) and 2.27 mm (IQR 0.97–4.25) for non-visible cancers, p=0.002, respectively. Sensitivity for cancers <5mm, 5–9.9mm, and >=10mm was 33.3% (1/3), 49.4% (43/87), 62.6% (119/190) for visible; 27% (42/155), 32.2% (10/30), 54.5% (12/22) for non-visible.
Conclusion: AI is more likely to detect larger, ER-positive cancers, with a trend towards grade Limitations: The limitations of this study were the single site; tumour size was estimated in - 6% of cases.
Funding for this study: This research was supported by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014) and the CRUK early detection programme grant. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Council for At-Risk Academics (Cara) funded the research fellowship for M.N. (award no. 210211). We would like to thank the company for taking part in this study.Has your study been approved by an ethics committee? YesEthics committee - additional information: This retrospective study used anonymised mammograms from two National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) centres under ethical approval [Health Research Authority Research Ethics Committee (HRA REC) 20/LO/0104, HRA Confidentially Advisory Group (CAG) 20/CAG/0009, and Public Health England (PHE) Research Advisory Committee (RAC) BSPRAC_090].